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Tropical cyclone rainfall (TCR) extensively affects coastal communities, primarily through inland flooding. The impact of global climate changes on TCR is complex and debatable. This study uses an XGBoost machine learning model with 19-year meteorological data and hourly satellite precipitation observations to predict TCR for individual storms. The model identifies dust optical depth (DOD) as a key predictor that enhances performance evidently. The model also uncovers a nonlinear and boomerang-shape relationship between Saharan dust and TCR, with a TCR peak at 0.06 DOD and a sharp decrease thereafter. This indicates a shift from microphysical enhancement to radiative suppression at high dust concentrations. The model also highlights meaningful correlations between TCR and meteorological factors like sea surface temperature and equivalent potential temperature near storm cores. These findings illustrate the effectiveness of machine learning in predicting TCR and understanding its driving factors and physical mechanisms. 

Abstract. There has been a growing concern that most climate models predict precipitation that is too frequent, likely due to lack of reliable subgrid variabilityand vertical variations in microphysical processes in low-level warm clouds.In this study, the warm-cloud physics parameterizations in the singe-columnconfigurations of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 6 and 5 (SCAM6and SCAM5, respectively) are evaluated using ground-based and airborneobservations from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the EasternNorth Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign near the Azores islands during2017–2018. The 8-month single-column model (SCM) simulations show that both SCAM6 and SCAM5 cangenerally reproduce marine boundary layer cloud structure, majormacrophysical properties, and their transition. The improvement in warm-cloud properties from the Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 (CAM5 to CAM6) physics can be found through comparison with the observations. Meanwhile, both physical schemes underestimate cloud liquidwater content, cloud droplet size, and rain liquid water content butoverestimate surface rainfall. Modeled cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)concentrations are comparable with aircraft-observed ones in the summer but areoverestimated by a factor of 2 in winter, largely due to the biases in thelong-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols like sulfate. We also testthe newly recalibrated autoconversion and accretion parameterizations thataccount for vertical variations in droplet size. Compared to theobservations, more significant improvement is found in SCAM5 than in SCAM6.This result is likely explained by the introduction of subgrid variationsin cloud properties in CAM6 cloud microphysics, which further suppresses thescheme's sensitivity to individual warm-rain microphysical parameters. Thepredicted cloud susceptibilities to CCN perturbations in CAM6 are within areasonable range, indicating significant progress since CAM5 which produces anaerosol indirect effect that is too strong. The present study emphasizes theimportance of understanding biases in cloud physics parameterizations bycombining SCM with in situ observations. 

Abstract The Southern Ocean is covered by a large amount of clouds with high cloud albedo. However, as reported by previous climate model intercomparison projects, underestimated cloudiness and overestimated absorption of solar radiation (ASR) over the Southern Ocean lead to substantial biases in climate sensitivity. The present study revisits this long-standing issue and explores the uncertainty sources in the latest CMIP6 models. We employ 10-year satellite observations to evaluate cloud radiative effect (CRE) and cloud physical properties in five CMIP6 models that provide comprehensive output of cloud, radiation, and aerosol. The simulated longwave, shortwave, and net CRE at the top of atmosphere in CMIP6 are comparable with the CERES satellite observations. Total cloud fraction (CF) is also reasonably simulated in CMIP6, but the comparison of liquid cloud fraction (LCF) reveals marked biases in spatial pattern and seasonal variations. The discrepancies between the CMIP6 models and the MODIS satellite observations become even larger in other cloud macro- and micro-physical properties, including liquid water path (LWP), cloud optical depth (COD), and cloud effective radius, as well as aerosol optical depth (AOD). However, the large underestimation of both LWP and cloud effective radius (regional means ∼20% and 11%, respectively) results in relatively smaller bias in COD, and the impacts of the biases in COD and LCF also cancel out with each other, leaving CRE and ASR reasonably predicted in CMIP6. An error estimation framework is employed, and the different signs of the sensitivity errors and biases from CF and LWP corroborate the notions that there are compensating errors in the modeled shortwave CRE. Further correlation analyses of the geospatial patterns reveal that CF is the most relevant factor in determining CRE in observations, while the modeled CRE is too sensitive to LWP and COD. The relationships between cloud effective radius, LWP, and COD are also analyzed to explore the possible uncertainty sources in different models. Our study calls for more rigorous calibration of detailed cloud physical properties for future climate model development and climate projection. 

Abstract. Vertical profiles of aerosols are inadequately observed and poorlyrepresented in climate models, contributing to the current large uncertaintyassociated with aerosol–cloud interactions. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and CloudExperiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) aircraft field campaignnear the Azores islands provided ample observations of verticaldistributions of aerosol and cloud properties. Here we utilize the in situaircraft measurements from the ACE-ENA and ground-based remote-sensing dataalong with an aerosol-aware Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model tocharacterize the aerosols due to long-range transport over a remote regionand to assess their possible influence on marine-boundary-layer (MBL)clouds. The vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud properties measured viaaircraft during the ACE-ENA campaign provide detailed information revealingthe physical contact between transported aerosols and MBL clouds. TheEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (ECMWF-CAMS) aerosol reanalysis data can reproduce the key features of aerosolvertical profiles in the remote region. The cloud-resolving WRF sensitivityexperiments with distinctive aerosol profiles suggest that the transportedaerosols and MBL cloud interactions (ACIs) require not only aerosol plumes to get close to the marine-boundary-layer top but also large cloud topheight variations. Based on those criteria, the observations show that theoccurrence of ACIs involving the transport of aerosol over the eastern NorthAtlantic (ENA) is about 62 % in summer. For the case with noticeable long-range-transport aerosol effects on MBL clouds, the susceptibilities of dropleteffective radius and liquid water content are −0.11 and +0.14,respectively. When varying by a similar magnitude, aerosols originatingfrom the boundary layer exert larger microphysical influence on MBL cloudsthan those entrained from the free troposphere.